Sudan Splitting in Two

Map from the Guardian

It is what it is and that's how it's gonna be.

With Sudan splitting in two on July 9th 2011, the two new countries; Sudan and South Sudan, faces many challenges. During a referendum on January 9-15th, 99% of the southerners voted in favor of separation, which came of no surprise. After 50 years of struggle and a decade of strains towards international diplomacy, the day finally arrived when it became clear that the south will be independent from the north. But everything's not all jolly good, as the two new states will be faced with a complete new set of challenges to make it work. The Republic of South Sudan will of course have to deal with every practicality that's involved in creating a new state, but Sudan will be equally vulnerable for many reasons.

Sudan challenges:

• Khartoum will have to do without the south's rich oil reserves
• The continuation of the fighting in Darfur will not be solved with the splitting of the country and will still be the responsibililty of the Sudanese government
• New conflicts in Southern Kordofan and likely elsewhere will have to be dealt with
• The identity of Sudan will be affected as it can no longer take pride in being the biggest country in Africa
• President Omar al-Bashir is accused by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in 2009 of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes in Darfur which resulted in a second issue of warrant (the first didn't hold) for charges of genocide. The warrant was delivered to the Sudanese government, which is unlikely to execute it

Southern Sudan challenges:

• Violence has haunted the region and more than 1500 people have died in battles this year; both in cattle raids and attacks by at least seven separate rebel militia groups fighting for the government
  
• Citizenships will have to be issued, as with legal matters
• Although Southern Sudan is rich in oil, the country will be one of the least-developed regions on earth
• Ethnic tensions and troubled relations with the north will mean constant security challenges
• Popular expectations on the new SPLM government are extremely high; people believe that independence means jobs, roads and general life approvements. The government will have to face the discontent when these hopes are not fulfilled without delay
• The SPLA will face many short-term challenges; accountability, logistics and sustainment; lack of mobility, poor tactical communications; urgent training and new equipment needs; and insufficient funds to support development
• Poverty, lack of development and the threat of violence will not magically disappear after the splitting

While a southern independence was the goal of a long struggle it will create a whole new set of difficulties. The biggest concern are the unsolved issues between the two new countries as will continue to be dependent on each other, mostly because of the oil in the south and the refineries in the north. However, war is never inevitable and I'll continue to keep my hopes up for a future peace between Sudan and Southern Sudan. If the governments are willing to solve the huge puzzle that lies ahead of them, the problems that today seem overwhelming can be solved. A key to the puzzle, in my opionion, is the involvement of the international community, that can both act as diplomats and help with the development of the two new states. It's up to the people to decide wether it's worth to continue to dispute over issues that can only result in a new war - or to put down their guns and work together for a sustainable peace.

Are you in Sudan or Southern Sudan?

I would like to get in touch with you - either as a guest blogger or to hear your point of view of the splitting of Sudan. Feel free to email me or write a comment and I'll contact you.

Follow the News

• http://www.bbc.co.uk/search/sudan gives you the latest news on Sudan
• http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12070034 provides news on Southern Sudan
• Securing a split Sudan in CNN Breaking News Videos
• Development in north and south Sudan - interactive on the Guardian
• South Sudan gears up for independence Video on Reuters
• Sudan Tribune is a news source on Sudan which is based in France (and therefore avoids Sudanese censorship)
• The Juba Post is the only independent English-language newspaper in Southern Sudan

You Shall Rise

In 2007 Mattafix released this song, "Living Darfur", to raise funds and awareness of the situation of the war stricken, torn and suffering people in the western parts of Sudan. The video was shot in eastern Chad on the border of Darfur and was funded by Mick Jagger. More than 200.000 people have died in the conflicts and over one million have been forced away from their homes. Whole villages have been burned and the UN have accused pro-government Arab militia for ethnic cleansing against non-Arab locals.

What's going on in Darfur has been called genocide, although too few people are aware of the seriousness of the situation. My heart is breaking for the suffering people that have lost their families and friends, forced away from their homes and suppressed by the government. It's unbelievable that something like this can happen today. We've said "never again" so many times that words turned empty. We don't need more words, written agreements and peace talk. What we need, is action.

Sudan - Love thy Neighbour!

In January 2011 there is planned to be held a referendum for independence for Southern Sudan, but the UN and various NGOs are already stocking up emergency equipment and food, preparing for conflicts. The chances are big that the referendum will either be delayed, or that the results of it will cause the peace agreements to be jeapordized. It's very likely that the Christian south will vote for independence and many are thought to vote in protest of the Muslim-ruled Khartoum government. I even think that it's likely that there will be pre-election conflicts; the shed of blood because of peoples' insecurities before the results. The Muslim north are afraid of loosing control over the oil rich south, and the Christian south are afraid of the north to not let them go no matter of the government's promises of respecting the outcome of the election.

It's a tense situation already and it's not likely that it will get less so. I'm still hoping of being able to go there to write my final thesis in pedagogy, but if things go as experts have predicted, it doesn't seem like a very good idea. Maybe things would be less violent in Khartoum, if a conflict would rise, but it's still an uncertain situation. Protests and demonstrations will probably not be very peaceful and there are bound to be deaths in even the safest places in the country. 

It breakes my heart. A country that has already seen so much suffering and death are now balancing on the border of yet another civil war. I hope with everything I have, that the weight will tip the mass to the right side of the border of peace and war, and that no more lives will be lost because of something that should be the beginning of a new, peaceful chapter. Sudan could be the good example for neghbouring countries to follow. This could end so well, yet history seems to repeat itself. UN are stocking up with food supplies in critical areas and Ban Ki-moon says that the potential for "unintended conflict" is high.

My dear, beloved Sudanese friends: Show the world the goodness of people. Be patient and consequent, love your country and everyone in it, Christian or Muslim, oil-rich or not. A new border is not something that should cause death and suffering to your neighbours, or yourself. If the south votes for independence, then be happy that a just, democratic election was seen through and that the masses got to have their say. Share the oil supplies fairly and continue to love one another. But don't take anything out in advance. The outcome of the election is yet to be shown.

Practice what you preach; your religion is one of peace.

Muhammed said: Hurt no one so that no one may hurt you.

Jesus said: Love thy neighbour.